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India’s Iron Ore Prices Gain on Higher China Demand (Update2)

By Debarati Roy

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- India’s export price for iron ore rose as much as 16 percent in the past week as customers in China replenished inventories ahead of National Day holidays, said an official of the Indian mineral industry association.

Prices rose to $70 a metric ton from $60 earlier this month, R.K. Sharma, secretary general of the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries, said today in a telephone interview.

China’s steelmakers are buying more iron ore, their main raw material, as the government implements a $586 billion stimulus spending. The economy is forecast to expand 8.2 percent this year, compared with a March estimate of 7 percent, the Asian Development Bank said last week, easing concern that the nation may slow raw-material imports.

“Demand has gathered momentum,” Sharma said. “India is benefiting as mills are stocking up ahead of the holidays.”

India’s exports may have fallen 15 percent in August and 25 percent in the first two weeks of this month, Siddharth Rungta, president of the Indian mineral body, said on Sept. 16.

China, the world’s biggest consumer of iron ore, may buy 20 percent more than forecast of the material next year, Canberra- based Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said on Sept. 22. China may import 637 million tons of ore in calendar 2010, compared with its June prediction of 529 million tons.

Also, global steel consumption may be 1.3 billion tons next year, up 6.5 percent from this year’s estimated 1.2 billion tons, the bureau said.

Shipping Surge

The Baltic Dry Index, the main measure of shipping costs for commodities, may surge more than 80 percent by the end of the year on increased demand for shipments to China, according China Ocean Shipping Group Co.

The gauge may rebound to 4,000 points as local governments encourage factory output, especially of steel, said Kong Fanhua, a senior researcher at China Ocean Shipping Group.

Iron-ore swaps for settlement this month traded at $79.67 a ton yesterday, according to SGX AsiaClear over-the-counter prices from Singapore Exchange Ltd. They indicate prices may rise to $81.42 in October.

China will be shut for more than week for the National Day holiday next month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in Mumbai at droy5@bloomberg.net.